Carnegie Connects
Politikk og nyheterHistorieCarnegie Connects is our premier virtual event series hosted by Aaron David Miller. Every other week, he tackles the most pressing foreign policy issues of the day in conversations with journalists, policymakers, historians, and experts.
Siste episoder av Carnegie Connects podcast
- Tomorrow is Yesterday: A Conversation With Robert Malley (00:51:39)
Nearly two years into the Israel-Hamas war, the two-state solution is back in the news with the United Nations General Assembly voting in support. Unlike in years past, October 7 and the drawn-out conflict in Gaza has led to a wider and much more polarized conversation. European nations, Arab states, and much of the international community are advocating for Palestinian statehood, while the Trump administration and Israel continue to push back. Was the two-state solution ever a serious possibility? What roles did the United States, Palestinian Liberation Organization, Israel, and key Arab states play? And if not two states, what solution if any, is possible? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Robert Malley, former Middle East adviser in three presidential administrations and co-author of the new book Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine, to discuss these and other issues.
- U.S. Leadership in a Challenging World: A Conversation With Former CIA Director William J. Burns (00:43:47)
In a world defined by seemingly intractable conflicts, great power competition, and rising challenges posed by climate change, nuclear proliferation, and economic uncertainty, the United States often seems like a modern-day Gulliver tied up and constrained by powers large and small and at times by its own politics and illusions. How does the United States advance its national interests in the face of these challenges, particularly against the backdrop of bitter divisions and polarization at home? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with William J. Burns, former director of the CIA and former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as he looks back on decades of national security challenges and ahead to what defines effective U.S. leadership in such a complex and fast-paced world.
- Can the U.S. Broker A Durable Agreement Between Russia and Ukraine? Analyzing the Trump-Putin Summit (00:54:38)
Presidential summits can be useful in opening serious negotiations or closing them with an agreement. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming summit in Alaska is the latest attempt by the United States to advance peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine—now three and a half years into the war. The outcome of the summit may foreshadow the direction of future negotiations and, ultimately, whether a durable solution is possible. What is the Trump administration’sstrategy for the summit? What can realistically be achieved in this dialogue between Trump and Putin, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy excluded? And how will Russia, Ukraine, and the United States proceed in its wake? Join Aaron David Miller in conversation with Andrew S. Weiss and Eric Ciaramella, two of Carnegie’s foremost Russia and Ukraine analysts, to unpack the summit’s outcomes, what comes next for the war, and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
- The U.S., Iran and Israel: Can Crisis be Turned Into Opportunity? (00:49:41)
The United States took unprecedented action, striking three nuclear sites on June 22, following an ongoing campaign of Israeli attacks on Iranian leadership, nuclear, and energy targets. Iran responded to Israel with a barrage of ballistic missile strikes, but following the latest U.S. bombing, Tehran attacked with a reportedly well-telegraphed symbolic strike on American assets in Qatar. For now, it seems the dangerous escalatory cycle has been diffused, but how long will this uneasy status quo endure without a negotiated set of arrangements that satisfies all three parties in this explosive triangle? Are Israeli and U.S. interests aligned? What kind of concessions is Iran prepared to make on their nuclear program? Is a diplomatic solution possible and, if not, what kind of conflict lies ahead? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Yadlin, president and founder of MIND and former head of IDF Intelligence, and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour to discuss these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Explosive Triangle: The U.S., Iran and Israel (00:49:00)
A tenuous U.S. brokered cease-fire seems to be holding. But the challenge of converting it into a more enduring cessation of hostilities, let alone a political agreement to address the Iranian nuclear program, remain formidable.Is Iran interested in a deal on the nuclear issue in the aftermath of Israeli and U.S. strikes? What are the United States’ objectives in the period ahead and do they align with Israel’s? And what should the American response be if Iran tries to reconstitute its nuclear assets?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages with General David Petraeus and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour in conversation on the complexities of this explosive triangle on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Israel and Iran at War: How Does This End? (00:48:05)
Israel’s surprise attacks last week against Iranian leadership targets, nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s retaliation with ballistic missiles, have pushed the Israeli-Iranian conflict into unknown territory. Unlike the confrontations of April and October of 2024, this new phase is deadlier and shows no signs of abating. What are Israel’s and Iran’s objectives? Can Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear program? What are the prospects for U.S. military intervention? And if there is a diplomatic off ramp, how would it defuse the current crisis and produce longer term stability? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Sima Shine, of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, and Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, in conversation on the current Israeli-Iranian conflict on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Self-Dealing in the Trump Administration: A Conversation With Norm Eisen (00:45:53)
Corruption, illicit foreign bribery schemes, and family members trading on presidential reputations for self-enrichment have surrounded the American political system for years. But the Trump presidency has embarked on an unprecedented scale of self-dealing out in the open, muddying the line between the national interest and those of the Trump family’s business enterprises. At the same time, the administration has hollowed out internal watchdogs, curbed ethics requirements, and undermined America’s credibility in the war against illicit finance. As Peter Baker noted in the New York Times, the "death or dearth of outrage," over this tsunami of self-dealing may well reflect how the Trump Administration has reshaped the standards of what's acceptable in Washington. Where are the current constraints against presidential self-dealing? Why have the public and political elites not generated the kind of reaction that might have been seen in years past? Are there historic parallels and ways to course correct? What impact do these actions have on U.S. standing globally? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Norm Eisen, founder of Democracy Defenders Action, on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Diplomacy or War: The Trump Administration and Iran (00:47:45)
While the Trump administration was eager to jettison the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal in its first term, it now seems serious about negotiating another agreement in its second. And Iran, though wary of that seriousness and fearful of U.S. military action, appears willing to give negotiations a chance. What are the prospects for success and the appetite for meaningful engagement with Iran? How would an agreement differ from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal? And if diplomacy fails, is American and Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear sites inevitable? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Suzanne Maloney, the vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, and Vali Nasr, the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Trump and the Courts: Will Our Guardrails Hold? (00:48:08)
Three months into his presidency, Donald Trump has embarked on an unprecedented effort to aggrandize executive power and extend his reach over the judiciary, Congress, the media, and even American culture and society. Perhaps the most alarming aspect has been his battle with the judiciary. The president has called for the impeachment of a federal judge; his executive orders have challenged, if not violated, constitutional norms; and his Justice Department has slow-walked, if not ignored, the rulings of the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court. “Never in history has the country faced such a massive flood the zone strategy,” writes the Carnegie Endowment’s President Mariano Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar in Foreign Affairs. Can the republic’s guardrails hold? Other than the courts, what are the constraints on the abuse of presidential power? What role do the markets, the states, the media, and public opinion play? And what are the consequences for America if these guardrails don’t hold?Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Carnegie Endowment’s Tino Cuéllar and Harvard’s Learned Hand Professor of Law Jack Goldsmith to shed light on how these issues may play out and what their implications are for America’s changing place in the world on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Finding the Way Forward on China: A Conversation With David Rennie (00:49:23)
China is top of mind for all these days, including U.S. officials. Whether it's because of military exercises against Taiwan, a trade war with the United States, or China's efforts to block a deal on Tik Tok, getting tough on Beijing seems to be the order of the day. But are we getting China right? Are agreements between the United States and China on core interests possible? Or is the current status quo the best we can do with Beijing to manage the relationship to avoid serious conflict? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with the Economist’s David Rennie to discuss these and other issues.
- What Comes Next for Israel? A Conversation With Former Shin Bet Director Ami Ayalon (00:49:56)
In recent days, the Netanyahu government has doubled down on its efforts to consolidate its control and ramp up its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the firing of the former director of Shin Bet, an unprecedented decision in Israel’s history, the government has begun the more complicated process of terminating the attorney general, as well as changing the process by which judges are appointed. A ferocious military operation in Gaza that has taken a terrible toll on Palestinian civilians and recent anti-Hamas demonstrations have resulted in renewed negotiations on a new hostage release for ceasefire agreement. And for the first time since the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement in November 2024, rockets launched against northern Israel triggered response strikes in the Beirut suburbs. What does the future hold for Gaza and any longer-term agreement? Will the Netanyahu government succeed in what appears to be a renewal of the 2023 effort to increase its power and undermine Israel’s judiciary? What about any hopes for a regional peace accord encompassing Palestinians and Saudi Arabia? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages former Shin Bet director Ami Ayalon on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Does Israeli and Palestinian Public Opinion Really Matter? (00:55:47)
Does public opinion matter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Do leaders pay attention to the changing views of their respective constituencies? Each situation presents unique challenges for analysts and scholars trying to answer these questions. And those challenges have grown exponentially more complicated in the wake of October 7, 2023, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. How have Israeli and Palestinian attitudes evolved toward their leaders and the region, one another, the United States’ role, and the war? And how do Israelis and Palestinians on all sides of the divide imagine their future, particularly whether there’s a pathway out of the ongoing crisis and any prospects for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Dahlia Scheindlin, a political strategist and a public opinion researcher, and Khalil Shikaki, the director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, two analysts and pollsters of Israeli and Palestinian politics and public opinion, on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.
- Assessing Trump’s Presidency: Two Historians Reflect on the Past and Future (00:49:06)
All Presidents, Jonathan Alter wrote, are blind dates. Donald Trump may be the first who isn’t. Political analysts and historians not only have Trump’s first term to gauge his temperament and policies, but the four years preceding the 2024 elections, where he previewed his agenda for his second non-consecutive term. Even with that foreshadowing, Trump has crashed through traditional norms and conventions, aggrandized presidential power, and sought to reshape American politics in ways few would have thought possible. What lessons does history hold for us in approaching the second Trump presidency? Is it plausible to talk about the age of Trump as historians have done for certain presidents? The American experiment in democratic self-governance has been tested in the past. How will it fare going forward? Indeed, will the traditional guardrails hold and protect against the abuse of presidential power? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with presidential historians Nicole Hemmer and Douglas Brinkley to discuss these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.
- A Conversation with Jake Sullivan (00:51:01)
As President Trump pursues his “America First” foreign policy agenda, much of the world is left wondering about what role the United States will now play in global affairs and the stark contrast of this administration from those that came before. Writing in Foreign Affairs in October 2023, Jake Sullivan, then the National Security Adviser to President Joe Biden, asserted that the “essence of President Biden’s foreign policy is to lay a new foundation of American strength so that the country is best positioned to shape the new era in a way that protects its interests and values and advances the common good.” Was the Biden Administration able to lay that new foundation of strength that might enable the U.S. to advance both its interests and its values, and cope with the complexities of a fast-changing world? Was it able to successfully mobilize its alliances and check the power and influence of its adversaries? And will the Trump administration, with a dramatically different approach to the world beyond America’s shores, fare any better? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Jake Sullivan as they look back at the last four years of Biden administration’s foreign policy and ahead to the challenges that confront the nation at home and abroad, on the next edition of Carnegie Connects.
- America’s Democracy in the Age of Trump: A Conversation with Francis Fukuyama (00:50:41)
“The outcome of the American election will have huge implications both for American institutions and for the world,” Francis Fukuyama wrote in September of last year. Just a few weeks into his second term, with a slew of executive orders and controversial appointments, President Donald Trump seems determined to refashion the fabric of American politics and society with the aim of aggrandizing presidential power at the expense of Congress and the courts. Globally the new administration is worrying allies by withdrawing from the Paris Climate agreement and the World Health Organization, suspending foreign assistance, and imposing tariffs on key trading partners.How will these efforts impact America’s political system? Will the checks and balances the framers envisioned to constrain the abuse of power hold? What impact will the foreign and domestic policies of the new Administration have on America’s role and image in the world? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Francis Fukuyama, a nonresident scholar in the Carnegie Endowment’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, to discuss these and other issues.
- Russia’s War on Ukraine Three Years On (01:03:42)
Three years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, two undeniable realities appear to mark its future. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes time is on his side, and ongoing political changes in Washington are stirring worries that Ukraine can no longer count on sustained levels of military, economic and political assistance. The Kremlin is not deviating from its ultimate goal of making Ukraine unlivable and non-viable while restoring it to Russia’s sphere of influence. Ukrainian Volodymyr President Zelensky, on the other hand, is facing acute manpower shortages and continued military setbacks. As we enter 2025, what does the battlefield picture tell us? How will the advent of the Trump Administration impact America’s support for Ukraine? Can Europe fill the gap should America falter? The Trump Administration has begun preliminary talks with Russia about a Putin-Trump summit. What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement to pause or end the war? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegie analysts and scholars Michael Kofman, Alexandra Prokopenko, Eric Ciaramella and Andrew S. Weiss to discuss these and other issues in the latest episode of Carnegie Connects.
- What Does the Fall of the Assad Regime Mean for Syria and the Middle East? (00:49:09)
Over the last two years, intelligence organizations and analysts failed to anticipate critical events in the Middle East that would roil the region. The sudden collapse of the Assad regime and the opening of a new chapter in Syria’s conflict-ridden story is the latest in a fraught period that has seen an of escalation of tensions in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. What explains the Assad regime’s sudden demise and the ascendance of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Sunni Islamist organizations? What do these events portend for Syria’s governance and the policies of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Israel in the region? And what would be the best policy on Syria for the incoming U.S. administration? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, and Charles Lister, senior fellow and the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, to explore these and other issues.
- A Conversation with Efraim Halevy and Ami Ayalon (00:49:58)
More than a year into the Israel-Hamas war, the Middle East remains mired in conflict. The war in Gaza drags on with no end in sight; the West Bank continues to seethe; the collapse of the Assad regime has activated Israeli forces along the Syrian border; and while a cease-fire deal has calmed the Israel-Lebanon border, the possibility of a serious escalation between Israel and Iran remains all too real. Meanwhile, uncertainties about U.S. policy abound as the Biden Administration gives way to one headed by President Donald Trump.Will Israel be able to translate its recent military wins into stable security and political arrangements? What does the future hold for the hostages and the people of Gaza? Is there a diplomatic off-ramp that might preempt or prevent an Iran-Israel confrontation? And what of the future of Iran’s nuclear program? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Ami Ayalon, the former head of Shin Bet, and Efraim Halevy, the former head of Mossad, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.
- A Conversation with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell (00:50:49)
Beyond Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration has faced significant international challenges over the president’s four years in office. President Biden and his team have contended with a range of issues including strategic competition, growing threats to democracies, climate change, critical minerals supply chains, and shaping the transformative potential of emerging tech to solve global problems without exacerbating regional economic inequality. When it comes to foreign policy, as George Will quipped, the American public wants as little of it as possible, but that hasn’t been the case over the last four years. What are the key principles and assumptions that have underscored its approach to foreign policy? And what kind of world does it leave for its successors? U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has served in the Biden administration from the beginning, first at the White House and more recently at the State Department. Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell to discuss these and other issues.
- Covering Conflict: A Conversation With Clarissa Ward of CNN (00:44:49)
With no shortage of conflicts in today’s world, journalists covering war zones provide indispensable reporting and analysis, often at great personal risk. Few war correspondents have more experience covering conflict than CNN’S Clarissa Ward, who has covered conflicts from Afghanistan to Ukraine, to Syria and Gaza, reporting from the world’s hot spots providing first-hand accounts of violent conflicts and their impact on civilians. Most recently, Clarissa and her crew were detained by an armed militia in Darfur. What does it take to cover conflict? How does reporting on one conflict differ from another? And how do journalists witnessing the horrors of violent conflict keep their own emotions and feelings out of the story? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Clarissa Ward to discuss the challenges and travails of reporting from some of the world’s most dangerous conflict areas.
- Where Does America Go From Here? A Conversation With SE Cupp and Norman Ornstein (00:48:42)
Elections have consequences. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory carries implications for America’s governance and role in the world that are uncertain, transformative, and potentially dangerous to American democracy.What explains his election? Does it presage a genuine political realignment? What are the consequences of Republican control of the White House, Senate, and potentially the House? And what do they mean for a Democratic party now seemingly in the political wilderness? Join Aaron David Miller as sits down with SE Cupp and Norman Ornstein, two of the nation’s most thoughtful political analysts, to discuss these and other issues.
- A Conversation with Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak (00:59:55)
Ongoing conflicts between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely to define much of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. Israel may have escalation dominance, but this will not necessarily bring about security, let alone the political accords required to bring greater stability to the region. Most serious is the new reality created by Iranian and Israeli strikes directly on one another’s territory, posing a dangerous risk tolerance. What are the chances for further Iranian-Israeli escalation? Does Israel have a strategy to convert its recent military successes into sustainable political achievements with Palestinians or in Lebanon? And what does the future hold for the U.S.-Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with former Israeli Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other issues in the next edition of Carnegie Connects.
- Explosive Triangle: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon (00:52:37)
Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has broken a status quo that could carry potentially momentous consequences for a country and a region already marked by a year of conflict. Critical questions loom. What are Israel’s military objectives in the south and can they be achieved? Has the weakening of Hezbollah shifted Lebanon’s internal power balance and created opportunities for strengthening state sovereignty? How will Iran respond to the weakening of its billion-dollar proxy? And are there realistic opportunities for the international community, especially the United States, to pursue diplomatic options that could produce greater stability in Lebanon and along the Israel-Lebanon border? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Kim Ghattas and Ambassador David Satterfield to address these and other questions on Carnegie Connects.
- Israel and Iran at War? (00:48:59)
During the past two weeks, the possibility of a major Middle East multi-front war has increased significantly. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and Iran’s launching of ballistic missiles against Israel has created the potential of an escalatory ladder that both Iran and Israel might climb with dangerous consequences. Iran’s role and what they do next will be decisive. Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program, and Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, to discuss how Iran perceives the current landscape and may act as the crisis unfolds.
- Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Where Are We Headed? (00:47:21)
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has added a new dynamic to an otherwise predictable grinding war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine. The war has now dragged on for the better part of three years, with neither Moscow nor Kyiv able to achieve their territorial objectives. Nor are there any prospects for serious negotiations that might pause or end the war. Are there any developments on the battlefield that suggest changes in either side’s tactics and strategies in the months ahead? Have Europe and the United States developed funding and political strategies to prepare for the long war? What are the right mix of policy tools and overall strategy to help prosecute a long war in Ukraine and an open-ended confrontation with Moscow? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages in conversation with Carnegie’s own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.