El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
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December 2025 SW Climate Podcast - We’ve Been Ridged (01:19:07)
Recorded 12/19/2025, Aired 12/22/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are feeling good about the warmer than normal December temps. They start out with a look at recent conditions, including the persistent ridge keeping us dry this month. This leads to a review of a paper on the Heat Dome of 2023 - and what all this warmth means for snowpack in the west. They give their End of Year review of heat, fire and precipitation in 2025. Rounding out the episode is a telling of each of their picks for the Climate Story of the Year for the Southwest.
Mentions:
Climate Anomaly Maps and Tables
Paper: “The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean”
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service - Snowpack Map
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
SWCC: Southwest Year-To-Date Wildland Fire Activity
Webinar: Globe/Miami Flooding Event of September 2025: Weather and Climate Overview
NOAA NWS: Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks
NOAA NWS: North American Multi-Model Ensemble
International Multi-Model Ensemble
November 2025 SW Climate Podcast - Pumpkin Spice Weather (01:00:08)
Recorded 11/07/2025, Aired 11/10/2025
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are enjoying the recent fall weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode. The hosts recap October which had some pretty interesting storm activity. There is a summary of the hurricane season - including the category 5 Melissa that had devastating impacts in the Caribbean. They cover the fall to winter transition patterns. Then the podcast ends with a discussion on the weak developing La Niña which may or may not relieve the drought pressure with some winter precipitation.
Mentions:
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
Video - Hurricane Hunters pass through the eye of Melissa
NOAA - National Hurricane Center
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): JFM Precipitation
***If you receive an error message on any of the NOAA websites, try using an incognito browser window
October 2025 SW Climate Podcast - The After Monsoon (01:11:00)
Recorded 10/03/2025, Aired 10/06/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick it off by saying goodbye to the monsoon. They do a recap of the season with a focus on last month's rain events. September was interesting to say the least - this leads to a philosophical discussion on whether it is the same flavor as the rest of the monsoon. The hosts tie up the episode with what’s on the horizon for this coming winter & the ENSO forecast.
Mentions:
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
Monsoon Precipitation Totals with Rankings 2025
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
August 2025 SW Climate Podcast - At Wits End (01:08:50)
August 2025 SW Climate Podcast - At Wits End
Recorded 8/29/2025, Aired 9/2/2025
We are over two-thirds of the way through this year’s monsoon and in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have a bit of a therapy session. They do a round up of July and August which they call the most uninteresting monsoon. There is a deep dive on what is driving this picture of night and day between Arizona and New Mexico. They give a look towards September with all eyes on the eastern Pacific tropical activity as the wildcard. They eventually learn to appreciate the subtleties and accept their relationship with the Southwest Monsoon.
Mentions:
Monsoon Season Station Climate Summaries
Paper: Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF)
SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons
NOAA - NWS: Climate Prediction Center
July 2025 SW Climate Podcast - The (Unusual) Monsoon Edition (01:08:27)
Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode. All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season. They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California. They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states. Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.
You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet. August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!
Mentions:
NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): August Precipitation
TropicalTidbits: GFS Model
June 2025 SW Climate Podcast - Monsoon’s Gonna Monsoon (01:07:13)
Recorded 06/24/2025, Aired 06/26/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast we are in the final countdown to the monsoon. To get us started, host Zack Guido quizzes host Mike Crimmins on his climatology knowledge. They then cover this past month’s heat ramp up, take a walk down monsoon history over the past few seasons, and look at past conditions as a precursor to get the monsoon party started. Then close out with our current conditions and what the forecasts are saying. Will the tropical storm activity be this year’s wildcard?!?
Don’t forget to sign up and make your predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game. Forecasts for July must be entered by June 30 at 11:59 PM.
Mentions:
Paper: “Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
30 Day-ish Climate Tracking for Southwest U.S.
2025 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis - University of Arizona
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
International Multi Model Ensemble
ECMWF: Run AI models yourself from ECMWF open data
May 2025 SW Climate Podcast - Monsoon Countdown (01:23:08)
Recorded 5/16/2025, Aired 05/20/2025
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are ready to start counting down the days to this year’s monsoon season. But before they get into the monsoon preview - they do a final winter recap and review April and May’s weather patterns. They also cover the fire season so far, and Mike gets to share on his upcoming paper “Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire-Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico”.
Stick around for the monsoon discussion at the end so you can be informed - or at least entertained - in time for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game starting next month!
Mentions:
Paper: “Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation”
National Interagency Coordination Center - National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: 3 Month Seasonal Outlook
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) - Precipitation Forecast
AZ State Climate Office Monthly Webinar Series - NWS Tucson Presentation: 2025 Monsoon Outlook
International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) - Precipitation Forecast
March 2025 SW Climate Podcast – March Toward Heat (01:14:46)
Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025
For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode. They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season. Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.
Mentions:
Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps
USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map
Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation”
NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor
PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production"
PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited”
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Outlook Precipitation (JAS)
North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Seasonal Forecast Precipitation (JAS)
February 2025 SW Climate Podcast – Well… It’s Been Sunny (01:16:18)
Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025
It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news. Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings. They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season. Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March? Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.
Mentions:
ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow?
Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity
Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)
Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West
Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Plumes
Billy Idol - State Line: Live At The Hoover Dam
December 2024 SW Climate Podcast – Relatively Speaking (01:00:22)
Recorded 12/06/2024
Aired 12/10/2024
In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins slow-roll into the winter season. They look back on 2024 followed by what happened in November and why - including the Atmospheric River event on the west coast. They dive into a recent paper that interrogates the expected intensification of cool season precipitation in the west. And close out with a teaser look at the La Niña outlook and precipitation forecast with a highlight of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).
Mentions:
Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”
ENSO Blog: “Can a little La Niña pack a big precipitation punch?”
Related Paper: “A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate”
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
November 2024 SW Climate Podcast – It’s All About Nuance (01:09:13)
Recorded 11/1/2024
Aired 11/5/2024
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here. In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns. They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton. And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña. Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead. Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!
Mentions:
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
NOAA - CPC: El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall
Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events
NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features
Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California
Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?
NOAA - CPC: Three-Month Outlooks
September 2024 SW Climate Podcast – A Tale of Two Monsoon Halves (01:12:53)
Recorded 9/20/2024
Aired 9/24/2024
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year. They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest. They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks. This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!
Generational Count = 11
Mentions:
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS)
The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events
RainLog
CoCoRaHS
NOAA - CPC: Outlooks
NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker
IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
August 2024 SW Climate Podcast – Monsoon Morphology (01:28:19)
Recorded 8/16//2024
Aired 8/20/2024
Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon. They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September. Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!
Mentions:
RainLog
“Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States”
NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
"Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network"
"Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models"
NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”
July 2024 SW Climate Podcast – Wrong for the Right Reasons (01:19:17)
Recorded 7/19/2024
Aired 7/23/2024
Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season. The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis. And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?). Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.
Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!
Mentions:
Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group
- Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog
- Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, ptwbunn@arizona.edu
Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM)
RainLog
Climate Reference Network
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
June 2024 SW Climate Podcast – So you're telling me there's a chance? (01:09:06)
It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon. Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business. The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).
Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024
Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Mentions:
Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks
National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks
Drought.gov - Soil Moisture
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center
Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model
Special Edition SW Climate Podcast - 2023 E&S Fellows (01:21:27)
Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene. In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year. A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning. Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems. Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.
2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows
Hannah Friedrich
“Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”
Majerle Lister
“Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”
Lucas Belury
“Flood Justice in South Texas”
Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording
“What's going on with the rains?”
May 2024 SW Climate Podcast – Rumble in the Desert (01:02:19)
It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season. In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon. Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season? Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying? Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!
Recorded: May 3, 2024
Aired: May 8, 2024
Mentions:
University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications
Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters”
NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble
March 2024 SW Climate Podcast – The Kinda, Sorta El Niño (01:11:20)
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts. The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season. And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod!
Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024
Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024
February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late (01:00:31)
February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late
It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around.
Mentions:
ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower
Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States”
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778
National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map
National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode (01:33:09)
December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode
Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month. Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts. This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break. And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew!
Mentions:
Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation. Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan
The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002
Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah
Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark
Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021
Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah
Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019
Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017
Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022
The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023
Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022
Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna
Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017
Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly. Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming (01:03:01)
November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about. They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers. The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation. Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten!
Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023! We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.
Mentions:
U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West
National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlook
National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model Ensemble
USDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent
“Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries”
Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?”
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
September 2023 SW Climate Podcast – 2023 Monsoon Recap (00:52:30)
Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror. Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :( They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon. We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter.
Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December. Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.
Mentions:
RainLog
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
August 2023 SW Climate Podcast – The Existential Monsoon (01:06:57)
In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season. They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest. Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter. Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there!
Mentions:
Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map
RainLog
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon
Climate Perspectives
@NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar
Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States”
CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept
{"Generational" Count = 1}
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
July 2023 SW Climate Podcast – A Puzzling Monsoon (00:54:40)
Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon. They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game. They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon.
Mentions:
Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker
Climate Perspectives
Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins
Zack Guido
June 2023 SW Climate Podcast – 2023 Monsoon Kick Off (01:15:58)
If you aren't thinking about the 2023 Monsoon Season, this Kick Off episode for the June 2023 Southwest Climate Podcast is just what you need. Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to dive into the May / June review, a look at the current wildfire season, a brief chat about drought, then get into the recent Tex-Mex Heat Dome and dive right into the nitty gritty of the upcoming '23 Monsoon Season. They follow it up with an overview of the flex of El Niño, some hurricane looks - and last but not least - Monsoon Predictions.
If you haven't signed up for the Monsoon Fantasy game yet - This is your alarm clock! Forecasts for July must be cast by June 30 at 11:59 PM! Sign up today to play!
Mentions:
RainLog
Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC)
'Wavy' Jet Stream - Twitter
Monsoon Fantasy
["Generational" Count = 7]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
Michael Crimmins
