Economist and "Noahpinion" writer Noah Smith and investor Erik Torenberg make sense of what’s happening in the news, technology, business, and beyond, through the lens of economics.
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Immigration Debate w/ Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry and Noah Smith (01:24:15)
In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://www.netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102Noah Smith and Pascal Emmanuel Gobry (PEG) engaged in a debate about immigration policy, focusing primarily on illegal immigration and enforcement approaches.The conversation centered on philosophical positions about borders, practical enforcement strategies, and the societal impacts of immigration policies.Both agreed that nations should have borders and control who enters, though they differed on enforcement methods.Noah advocated for employer-focused enforcement through company audits and fines rather than deportations.PEG supported stronger deportation measures and argued for the value of deterrence.They debated whether deportations would reduce crime affecting legal residents.Both agreed on the fiscal costs of illegal immigration as a significant issue.They discussed the political challenges of passing immigration reform.-Timestamps:00:00 Introduction05:00 – Philosophical Foundations: Borders, Nations, and Policy09:00 – “No Human is Illegal” & Historical Context13:25 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite15:30 – Enforcement, Detention, and Public Perception24:00 – Asylum Law, Legislative Gridlock, and Political Realities28:10 – Sponsor: Found41:00 – Mass Deportation: Crime, Economics, and Evidence56:00 – Trust, Public Sentiment, and Policy Limits1:10:00 – Final Thoughts & Outro-Listen to the Sphere Podcast:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/48eWEcxSYDyrgjC3lO0EJZYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB2gs2TBXeP7vyn9QUaaxjQ-FOLLOW on X:Pascal - https://x.com/pegobry_enNoah - https://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
AI Business Models, Rare Earths, and China's Economic Challenges (00:54:49)
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://www.netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivityAI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlinesCode-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoptionVertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining tractionChina controls the majority of rare earth mining and refiningThe US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to miningLack of solvent extraction technology and know-howChina's fertility rate is lower than Japan and EuropeHowever, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term-Timestamps:00:00 — Intro00:52 — AI’s impact on productivity02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity’s impact on productivity, lessons for AI07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges32:20 — Sponsor: Found33:33 — China’s demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation54:06 — Recommendations for China’s economic policy, rationalizing the economy-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see https://a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Manufacturing's Future, The Electric Tech Stack, and Automation (00:56:02)
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover the transformation of global manufacturing, the rise of the electric tech stack, the landscape of jobs and economic policy, and the state of today's online discourse.–SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102–FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion–Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Who Profits from AI? (00:56:07)
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and explore how AI is reshaping the economy, jobs, business profitability, industry competition, and financing, while drawing historical parallels and offering insights into its broader societal impact.–SPONSORS:ZcashZcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy. Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcashNotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102AI Bubble Prediction: The speaker forecasts an AI crash similar to the 2001 dot-com bust, but believes AI will ultimately succeed long-termEmployment Evolution, Not Elimination: Research shows unemployment rising in jobs that use AI less, contradicting fears that AI directly replaces workersData Center Financing Risks: How financing methods for AI infrastructure could create systemic risks similar to the 2008 financial crisis if private credit becomes the main vehicleBond Market Shift: Companies like Meta are increasingly issuing their own bonds rather than using opaque private credit markets, a healthier approach to AI infrastructure financingMultiple Winners in AI: How the massive size of AI markets is enabling multiple successful companies in each category despite traditional concerns about moatsVenture Capital's AI Approach: a16z has been investing heavily in AI companies but feels they've been "too conservative" given the multiple winners emerging across categoriesQuotes:"We tend to think that the markets are just so much bigger, and so even if there's no traditional moats protecting it from other entrants, that there can be multiple winners in a category.” - Erik TorenbergLINKS:The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXNoahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
AGI Thought Experiment with Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg | From the a16z Podcast (01:15:55)
In this episode from the a16z Podcast, Dwarkesh Patel, Noah Smith, and Erik Torenberg discuss AGI, exploring how AI might transform labor markets, economic growth, space exploration, and geopolitical dynamics in the coming decades.–SPONSORS:ZcashZcash offers private, encrypted digital money that protects users from AI-powered surveillance, allowing people to store and spend wealth without compromising their privacy. Try it out. Download Zashi wallet and follow @genzcash to learn more: https://x.com/genzcashNotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102Defining AGI: Noah and Dwarkesh begin by establishing working definitions of Artificial General Intelligence - from systems that "can do almost any job at least as well as humans" to more near-term AI that "can automate 95% of white-collar work"Current AI Limitations: Present systems lack crucial continual learning capabilities that would allow them to build context over time and improve with experience like humans doHistorical Parallels: The conquistadors' conquest of the Aztec and Inca empires provides a cautionary tale about information asymmetry and how technological advantages can lead to dominationAI Cooperation: The hosts discuss the need for US-China cooperation on AI safety, similar to the "red telephone" during the Cold War, to prevent AI-related sabotageAI Market Competition: Analysis of the surprising trend of increasing rather than decreasing competitors at the AI frontier, despite rising costs of training frontier modelsNetwork Effects vs. Technical Capability: Discussion of whether brand recognition (like "ChatGPT") or technological advantages will determine market leadersQuotes:"If you make the best AI, it gets even better. So why enter that? That's the big question." - Noah SmithLINKS:The a16z podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXNoahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/Dwarkesh podcast: https://www.dwarkesh.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Making Sense of Milei, AI & Employment, and America's Future (00:53:57)
In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore Argentina's economic reforms under President Milei, development models in emerging economies like Vietnam and Malaysia, effective crime reduction strategies, and how AI might reshape our workforce and population dynamics in the coming decades.–SPONSORS:CartaCarta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102ShopifyShopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at notion.com/lp/econ102Argentina's Economic Reforms: President Milei's fiscal austerity measures to address chronic deficits without dollarization, focusing on necessary belt-tightening for a middle-income country supporting an upper-income welfare stateDevelopment Models in Emerging Economies: Case studies like Vietnam and Bangladesh demonstrating different paths to economic developmentThe Crime Rate Decline: Focused deterrence approaches and community policing helping reduce violent crime, especially among high-risk populationsEducation and Fertility Rates: The inverse relationship between women's education and fertility rates, and the impossibility of reversing it without dystopian measuresAI and Population Dynamics: How artificial intelligence might mitigate economic damage from population decline by replacing human laborQuotes:"If AI really can replace humans, then that will mitigate the economic damage from the losses of population." - Noah Smith"Murders between people who know each other, between people who are like intimate partner violence has gone way down." - Noah Smith"We need to basically create technologies that make it easy to take care of kids so that parenthood doesn't mean it's giant change in your life." - Noah SmithLINKS:Noahpinion newsletter: https://noahpinion.substack.com/Erik Torenberg's Substack: https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/Got questions for Noah and Erik to answer on air? Send them to Econ102@Turpentine.co-FOLLOW ON X:@noahpinion@eriktorenberg@turpentinemedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Sam D'Amico and Noah Smith on How China Masters Manufacturing (And How America Can Catch Up) (00:55:12)
This week, we’re airing a live conversation between Noah Smith and Sam D’Amico, founder and CEO of Impulse Labs, about how China’s Electric Tech Stack and tightly integrated supply chains are fueling its lead in industries from EVs to robotics, while exploring solutions for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing. The conversation also covers regulatory challenges, the value of co-locating engineers and factories, and the role of advanced technologies in shaping global production.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
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NetSuite
More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@sdamico
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
https://www.impulselabs.com/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
The "Electric Tech Stack" Revolution: Electric Tech Stack" - batteries, motors, power electronics, and chips. This stack is replacing traditional manufacturing across industries, turning everything from cars to military equipment into "fancy drones.
Why America Struggles with Manufacturing: Engineers live in expensive NIMBY cities while factory workers live elsewhere, breaking the crucial feedback loop needed for hardware iteration.
China's Advantages: Chinese companies expect to build 200-300 prototype units before shipping, with engineers working directly with factory workers.
Policy Solutions: Every major US city needs its own "Shenzhen" - a nearby manufacturing hub where engineers can drive to factories in 2 hours.
The Appliance Strategy: Sam's company Impulse is using battery-powered stoves as a trojan horse to rebuild America's electric tech stack manufacturing base. By creating domestic demand for these technologies outside EVs, they're building the supply chain that other companies can leverage.
The Stakes: The conversation emphasizes that this isn't just about economics - it's about national security. When Ukraine's toy drones can destroy Russian bombers 4,000 kilometers away, mastering the electric tech stack becomes a matter of military survival.
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The 2nd China Shock: Why Chinese Companies Are Making Zero Profit (00:50:29)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze recent global events—from a political shift in New York to the Israel-Iran conflict—while exploring U.S.-China economic dynamics, evolving industrial policies, and the risk of a recession. The conversation also touches on historical economic shifts, tariffs, and manufacturing trends.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Shopify
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
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–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitability
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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TAKEAWAYS:
New York City Politics: Discussion of a "Muslim socialist" winning what appears to be a NYC mayoral race.
Middle East Geopolitics: Analysis of recent Iran bombing and its economic implications.
China's Current Industrial Policy Problems: Xi Jinping's aggressive subsidization of strategic industries (EVs, semiconductors, batteries, solar panels).
Key Economic Insights: China's export percentage of GDP is now lower than many developed countries, but the absolute volume still creates massive global impact due to China's size.
US Manufacturing Revival: The importance of reducing regulatory barriers to enable more "sub-Elons" (entrepreneurs like Elon Musk).
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Derek Thompson on Why America Can't Build, Abundance, and Substack (01:09:55)
In this episode of Econ 102, we're republishing a conversation between Noah Smith and Derek Thompson recorded live on Substack in June. They explore Derek’s shift from The Atlantic to Substack and unpack the “abundance agenda” — a vision for revitalizing American politics through better housing, energy, and innovation policy. Their wide-ranging conversation touches on economic reform, trendspotting, and the evolving media landscape.
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SPONSORS:
NetSuite
More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@DKThomp
@eriktorenberg
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–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Derek Thompson Substack: https://www.derekthompson.org/
Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482
Paul Krugman: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/
Matt Yglesias: https://www.slowboring.com/
Kyla Scanlan: https://kyla.substack.com/
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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TAKEAWAYS:
Derek's Move to Substack: Derek left The Atlantic after 17 years to join Substack, driven by "party wanderlust" - seeing the vibrant community of writers like Noah, Matt Yglesias, and others.
Art of Trend Spotting: Noah praises Derek's unique ability to identify major trends before others, noting he's "earlier to spot new and important trends than any other blogger or writer." Derek reveals his method involves paying attention to that inner voice asking "what the fuck is that?" about everyday observations - essentially being like "observational humor but not necessarily humorous."
Abundance Agenda's Impact: The conversation reveals how the abundance movement has gained significant traction, with Derek noting that partnering with Ezra Klein was strategic since Klein has unique influence within Democratic circles. They discuss "Ezra Klein Derangement Syndrome" - how Klein's prominence makes him both influential and a target.
Need to attack MAGA degrowth ideology: Abundance advocates should more aggressively counter Trump's "scarcity mindset" that responds to every shortage with deprivation rather than increased production.
Federal housing incentives: Race-to-the-top style funding to reward localities for pro-housing policies.
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What Replaces Twitter? With Noah Smith & Chris Best, CEO of Substack (00:46:05)
This week, we're republishing a conversation from last month between Noah Smith and Substack CEO Chris Best, originally streamed on Substack Live. They discuss the future of media in an AI-driven world, including Noah's vision for AI-powered newsletters, the rise of independent voices, and the evolving roles of platforms like TikTok and Twitter. The conversation also explores Substack's potential as a breaking news hub, the broader impact of AI on content creation, shifting U.S.-China relations, and the role of industrial policy in shaping global dynamics.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Shopify
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
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The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@cjgbest
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
The Age of Twitter is finally ending. Can Substack take its place?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-age-of-twitter-is-finally-ending
Eugene Wei's Status as a Service:https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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TAKEAWAYS:
Death of Twitter as Breaking News Platform: Death of Twitter as Breaking News Platform.
Substack's Opportunity in Breaking News: Noah proposes that Substack could capture 80% of Twitter's former breaking news function.
AI's Role in Media's Future: AI as search engine, curator, and summarizer to help process information overload.
Attention Economy Problem: Chris highlights a crucial insight: "the media you can consume is not just a matter of getting what you want. It also shapes your desires and shapes what you want over time" - emphasizing that content choices shape identity over time.
Geopolitical Concerns: Noah expresses pessimism about America's competitive position.
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China, Tesla, and the Electric Tech Stack Revolution (00:45:07)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss China’s economic strategies, technological advancements, and geopolitical challenges, contrasting them with U.S. policy. They discuss topics from the Hong Kong protests to battery manufacturing and emphasize the need for American industrial policy, education reform, and strategic investment to stay competitive.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Shopify
Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/momentofzen.
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Is the U.S. in a "high-level equilibrium trap"?: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/is-the-us-in-a-high-level-equilibrium
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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TAKEAWAYS:
China's Strategic Position & Capabilities: China can easily police sea lanes to protect their own trade while potentially disrupting others, giving them a significant strategic advantage over America's traditional role as a global public goods provider.
Financial System Stress: China faces a persistent drag from their real estate crash and mounting bad debt in local government financing vehicles. Banks are struggling to transition from real estate lending to manufacturing loans, many of which will likely go bad.
Electric Tech Stack Revolution: The convergence of lithium-ion batteries, permanent magnet electric motors, and power electronics is creating a new technological paradigm that's replacing combustion engineering across multiple industries.
America's Manufacturing Challenge: America has "too many bottlenecks" - only Elon Musk seems capable of overwhelming all 20+ bottlenecks simultaneously, while other talented entrepreneurs can only handle 15 or fewer.
Republican Industrial Policy: America needs "Biden-style industrial policy without the everything bagel" - massive subsidies and support for electric tech manufacturing without progressive contractor requirements and community engagement processes.
China's Innovation Plateau: By the 2040s, China may face Japan's experience where aging leadership in corporations reduces innovation and creates fewer opportunities for young talent.
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Cost Disease, USAID Debate, and is Curtis Yarvin Trapped in 2020 (00:38:44)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore persistent economic myths and recent developments—from cost disease in services like healthcare and education to stagnating manufacturing productivity, rising higher education costs, drug pricing policies, and student loan debates—while also reflecting on broader intellectual shifts driven by culture wars and foreign aid discussions.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
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–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Healthcare & Education Cost Trends Reversing: Healthcare price growth has slowed significantly since 2009 and is now growing slower than average costs.
Technology's Role in Services: AI potentially solving education through personalized one-on-one tutoring (referencing "The Diamond Age").
Student Loans & Market Dynamics: Marginal students are dropping out of college, reducing demand.
Pharmaceutical Pricing: Americans actually pay less on average for pharmaceuticals due to cheaper generics.
Cultural Commentary: Discussing intellectual debates between prominent thinkers (Tyler Cowen vs. Scott Alexander on foreign aid, Scott Alexander vs. Curtis Yarvin on governance), emphasizing the importance of not getting trapped in the cultural moment of 2020-2021.
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Noah Smith & Matt Yglesias on the Electric Technology Crisis, China, and America's Future (01:13:07)
This week, we're republishing a conversation Noah Smith and Matt Yglesias hosted live on Substack this past Monday. They revisit a wide-ranging conversation on the transformative role of electric motors, batteries, and industrial policy in a politically polarized era, touching on the history of energy, global economic competition, AI regulation, the Inflation Reduction Act, Democratic strategy, and the need to redefine America’s identity amid demographic shifts.
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
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–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@mattyglesias
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–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Slow Boring: https://www.slowboring.com/podcast
–
TAKEAWAYS:
America's Strategic Blindness: The US had momentum with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which Noah calls "great industrial policy" that was working. However, because it was framed primarily as climate policy rather than technological/economic competition, Republicans killed it for culture war reasons, failing to understand its strategic importance.
The Climate Framing Problem: Matt was prescient in warning that framing industrial policy purely through climate would create Republican backlash. Noah admits Matt was right - while climate messaging helped pass the IRA initially, it made the policies vulnerable to being seen as "just some climate thing" rather than crucial economic policy.
The Obama Era Split: They trace how the 2000s gave their generation the "peace and love" progressive agenda (gay marriage, ending Iraq War), while the 2010s brought the "angry leftist" phase (riots, racial grievance politics) - unlike boomers who got both simultaneously.
Missing the Bush Playbook: During Bush's cascading failures (Iraq, Katrina, financial crisis), Democrats effectively built a broad coalition and defined clear opposition. Today, despite Trump's obvious failures (tariffs, debt, vaccine skepticism), Democrats aren't capitalizing similarly.
Narrow Target Strategy: Like successful campaigns in Australia, Democrats need to edit down their message to core critiques of Republican governance rather than trying to advance every progressive priority simultaneously.
Big Tent Revival: The party succeeded in 2006-2008 by recruiting diverse candidates and standing behind pro-gun, even some pro-life Democrats to clarify what the core message was versus peripheral issues.
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India-Pakistan, Building Back Military Power, and Immigration (00:59:04)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine global conflicts—especially India-Pakistan tensions—the U.S. military and industrial strategy amid rising threats from China, and the implications of AI and electrification, emphasizing the need for smarter immigration and industrial policies to maintain America's technological and geopolitical edge.
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
India-Pakistan Conflict Analysis: Noah explains the territorial dispute over Kashmir dating back to the 1947 partition, with both countries claiming parts of each other's territory.
America's Declining Global Influence: Noah argues we're seeing the "crumbling of Pax Americana" - reduced American deterrent effect allowing conflicts to escalate further.
Critical Defense Industrial Base Concerns: America cannot match China's manufacturing capacity for military equipment, particularly missiles and drones.
Economic Analysis - The Great Wage Stagnation: Wages stagnated for about 20 years, then resumed growth in the 1990s.
Technology Transformation - The Electric Future: Battery and motor technology improvements are enabling electricity to replace combustion in cars, drones, appliances, and military equipment.
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The Middle Class Myth, China's Future, and What Really Happened in 1971 (00:52:04)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg debunk myths about the American middle class and globalization, analyze historical data on wage stagnation and trade, assess China’s technological rise, and discuss U.S. economic resilience and policy responses to protectionism.
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/globalization-did-not-hollow-out
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Debunking the Middle Class Hollowing Myth: Noah challenges the common narrative that trade and globalization hollowed out America's middle class.
Manufacturing and Economic Shifts: Noah explains that while manufacturing employment did decline significantly (about 3 million jobs in the 2000s), this didn't correspond with overall middle class decline.
The China Shock Reality: The "5% truth" in the middle class hollowing narrative relates to what economists call the "China Shock" - a period in the 2000s when Chinese imports surged rapidly.
America's Globalization Status: Contrary to popular belief, America has never been highly globalized compared to other countries. Import penetration (imports relative to GDP) is much lower than in countries like China, France or Germany.
Energy Crisis Impact: Noah suggests the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 had a more significant impact on American manufacturing than trade policies.
Sino-Futurism and China's Future: They discuss "Sino-futurism" - the idea that China represents the technological future. Noah argues this perspective is overblown, noting issues with China's rapid infrastructure development (like the durability of construction), urban planning problems, and the cyclical nature of technological leadership. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
You Can't Tariff Your Way to Greatness (01:00:34)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore how nostalgia influences politics and economic policy in the US and China, comparing their consumer cultures, industrial strategies, and the complex effects of tariffs on domestic economies and global relations.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
If you think Americans are mad now, just wait a few months: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/if-you-think-americans-are-mad-now
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Nostalgia in Politics: They discussed the role of nostalgia in politics, both in the US and China.
Cultural Evolution: US and China: Noah argues China and America are more culturally similar than America and Germany due to both having replaced ancestral cultures with mass consumerism.
Tariffs and Economic Impact: The conversation analyzes Trump's tariff policies and their economic consequences.
US-China-Europe Relations: Europe may increasingly partner with China economically as US relations deteriorate.
Economic Consequences of Trade Policy: Noah argues tariffs don't reindustrialize a country but actually deindustrialize it.
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The Deindustrialization Paradox (00:45:02)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore topics ranging from the futuristic themes of Black Mirror and the societal impact of technology to a critical analysis of Trump’s de-industrializing tariff policies versus Biden’s growth-focused subsidies, while also examining libertarianism’s influence on American politics and the cultural shifts it may entail.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Worst-case scenarios and endgames for the Trump economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/worst-case-scenarios-and-endgames
In which I review almost every episode of Black Mirror: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/in-which-i-review-almost-every-episode
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Trump Administration Policies Discussion: Noah contrasts Trump's first term (pre-2019) with his expectations for the current term.
Biden Administration's Industrial Policy Approach: Noah highlights the different approach under Biden: adding support rather than disrupting existing systems.
Political and Economic Commentary: There's a discussion about Oren Cass (identified as a "conservative econ blogger" with a law degree) and his positions on industrial policy and tariffs.
Social Media's Impact on American Society: Noah presents a theory that America was "uniquely vulnerable" to social media's effects due to its geographical and ideological diversity.
Personal and Cultural Notes: The beginning features a discussion about the TV show "Black Mirror" and its exploration of technology implications.
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The Bond Market Rules Everything (00:57:23)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Trump administration’s trade policies, their impact on U.S. manufacturing and investment, discussing strategies to counter China’s influence through multi-country trade blocs and industrial policy, and examining currency dynamics, economic default risks, and the complexities of global trade.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Trade Policies: Noah describes the current administration's trade policies, particularly tariffs, as chaotic and poorly planned, comparing it to a "clown car" approach.
Economic Impacts of Recent Trade Policies: Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the economy by creating business uncertainty that discourages investment, disrupting supply chains for manufacturers reliant on imported components, and driving capital flight that raises borrowing costs through the selling of U.S. treasuries.
Why Exports Matter: Noah emphasizes that exports (approximately $2.1 trillion worth) are crucial to the US economy.
On Currency Strength: Noah explains that a strong dollar has both advantages (increased purchasing power) and disadvantages (makes exports less competitive).
China Containment Strategy: Noah proposes an effective China containment strategy focused on creating a zero-tariff trade bloc among allied nations, building complete supply chains across friendly countries, targeting China with value-added tariffs rather than just final assembly tariffs, investing in industrial policy to strengthen key industries, and applying export controls strategically.
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Tariff Mayhem and Capital Flight (00:59:35)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the global repercussions of Trump’s broad tariff policies, critique misconceptions about trade deficits, and explore the economic fallout and potential policy responses.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
All the arguments for Trumps Tariffs are wrong and bad: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-are
This is called Capital Flight: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-called-capital-flight
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Tariff Policy Analysis: They discuss the implementation of widespread tariffs, particularly focusing on how the administration set tariff rates without sound economic methodology, possibly using AI to generate justifications.
Trade Deficit Misconception: Noah explains that trade deficits are often misunderstood - they're essentially loans where a country buys goods and provides IOUs (bonds) in return, not necessarily harmful to an economy.
Manufacturing Impact: They argue that tariffs may actually harm domestic manufacturing by making imported components, machinery, and raw materials more expensive, potentially leading to de-industrialization rather than re-industrialization.
International Relations: The discussion covers how trading partners are responding, with China imposing reciprocal high tariffs, while noting that many countries will likely seek alternative export markets rather than capitulate to demands.
Long-term Economic Outlook: The discussion paints a concerning picture of potential rising unemployment, continued market volatility, and possible inflation depending on which economic forces (panic or inefficiency) prove stronger.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
The New Left vs The New Right (01:11:01)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the rise of the 'abundance' ideology among Democrats, assess Obama's economic legacy, and analyze the New Right's evolving influence, offering a broad perspective on shifting political and economic discourse.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith
Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Cory McArthur aka Irish Lotus: https://soundcloud.com/cory-mcarthur-879994262/irish-lotus
–
TAKEAWAYS:
"Abundance" as a Political Concept: Abundance represents national unity and a "we're all in this together" approach, focusing on making things better for all Americans rather than pitting groups against each other.
Economic Analysis: Demand vs. Supply Constraints: They discuss how the 2008 financial crisis created an "aggregate demand shock" where everyone wanted to hold cash rather than spend.
National Debt Discussion: They discuss how US debt grew from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. They also mention AI could potentially help by increasing productivity growth.
"The New Right" Ideology: Noah characterizes the "new right" as centered around defending "Western civilization" in a more narrow sense than previous definitions.
Social Media's Impact on Politics: Noah argues that small, vocal minorities on social media have outsized influence on institutions.
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Abundance Debate, Sex Politics, and Left vs Right Economic Populism (00:58:32)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore Japan’s economic and societal structure—covering urban zoning, housing policy, and government efficiency—before critiquing Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, advocating for balanced market dynamics and governance, and discussing broader socio-political themes like right-wing ideologies, gender in the workforce, and economic populism.
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482
I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
Japan's Urban Development Success: Japan's efficient housing development stems from streamlined approvals, standardized zoning, administrative processes, and mixed-use zoning.
Abundance Agenda Discussion: Noah analyzed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson's "Abundance" book, which promotes a results-oriented progressive approach focused on building things.
Government Structure and Process: Successful governance needs both market mechanisms and effective bureaucracy.
Political Factions and Resistance: Discussion of different progressive factions (Warren vs. Bernie supporters).
The "Doge" Discussion: References to "Doge" (likely Project 2025) as an ideological effort to reduce bureaucracy.
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How Europe, America and China are Repositioning (00:52:56)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump’s policies, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending’s effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith’s upcoming book, Weeb Economy, and Noah's trip to Japan.
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
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Incogni
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–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/
I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
–
TAKEAWAYS:
U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe.
China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries.
India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work.
AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic.
Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen.
AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.
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Making Sense of America's Tariff Chaos (01:03:07)
This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the chaos caused by Trump's trade policies, tariffs' effects on the U.S. economy, potential recession risks, economic isolationism, policy uncertainty, investment impacts, and the broader cultural and societal shifts in America, including the decline of Christianity, the rise of wokeness, and community disintegration.
–
SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Incogni
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102
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SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
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FOLLOW ON X:
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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TAKEAWAYS:
Economic Impact of Trump's Tariffs: Noah argues that Trump's tariffs (especially on Canada and Mexico) are damaging the US economy more severely than the China tariffs from his first term.
Why Tariffs Are Harmful: Factors such as reduced market scale for American companies, loss of specialization benefits, technological isolation ("Galapagos Syndrome"), policy uncertainty hindering business investment, and the negative impact on exports due to exchange rate effects and retaliatory tariffs are all contributing challenges.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Debate about whether tariffs will cause stagflation or a demand shock that lowers inflation.
Cultural and Social Commentary: Discussion of Ennis Lyons' argument about "the return of the strong gods" (nationalism, family, tradition, religion).
Innovation and National Success: Discussion about Japan's impressive innovation record (extensive list of Japanese inventions)
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AI, Stargate, & Surveillance with Auron McIntyre and Lev Polyakov (00:37:28)
In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements.
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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
🎙️Break The Rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers.
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBh
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@breakth3rules/
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SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Incogni
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@LevPo
@AuronMacintyre
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: https://www.youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfm
The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1684515580ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3H
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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TAKEAWAYS:
AI Development and Trump Administration: The discussion examines Donald Trump's meetings with tech leaders and the "Stargate" AI system, raising questions about whether the administration will embrace technocratic control systems or maintain populist principles.
Labor Market Effects: Noah points out that despite previous AI advances, we've seen wage increases for lower-skilled workers and movement toward higher-skilled jobs, challenging assumptions about AI's negative impact on employment.
Oligarchic Influences: Auron describes the current political landscape as an "age of oligarchy" where different factions of wealthy interests compete for influence, with Trump balancing populist rhetoric against tech billionaire support.
Civilization Complexity Theory: Auron references Joseph Tainter's theory on how increasing complexity with diminishing returns contributes to civilizational collapse, suggesting AI may be an attempt to escape these human limitations.
Immigration Comparisons: Noah argues that despite current debates about immigration, America faces fewer ethnic tensions than 100 years ago, providing historical perspective on current social challenges.
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Richard Hanania & Noah Smith: Making Sense of Trump, Elon, and Global Politics (01:15:50)
This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th, recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi.
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SPONSORS:
Carta
Carta is offering up to 40% off a new Carta plan, including cap table management, QSBS Attestation, and Carta Total Compensation. This limited-time offer runs through the end of July at z.carta.com/econ102.
NetSuite
More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found
Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102
AdQuick
The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
Incogni
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102
–
SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co
–
FOLLOW ON X:
@RichardHanania
@noahpinion
@eriktorenberg
@turpentinemedia
–
RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Richard Hanania’s Newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the
The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived
Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution
Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false
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TAKEAWAYS:
Richard notes Trump's first administration achieved success with Middle East normalization agreements.
Noah compares Ukraine war to Finland's Winter War - Ukraine may lose territory but maintain independence.
Richard questions whether taking NATO membership off the table could have prevented the Ukraine conflict.
Right-wing politics revolves around personal loyalty while left-wing politics centers on ideological purity.
Elon Musk is positioning himself as the kingmaker for the post-Trump Republican party.
Richard supports technological progress, believing future generations should benefit from AI and genetic engineering.
Noah argues societies that resist technological progress inevitably get left behind in global competition.
Richard expresses skepticism about Democrats' ability to reform, citing Obama's failed education reform efforts.
Noah predicts Democrats won't move away from "institutional wokeness" until the 2030s.
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